Early Occupational
Aspirations and Fractured Transitions: A Study of Entry into 'NEET'
Status in the UK,( Journal of Social
Policy, October 2010)
By Yates, S., Harris, A.,
Sabates, R. and Staff, J.
This report summarises analysis of
the British Youth Cohort Study,
comprising data from over
17,000 individuals
born in Britain in April
1970. Logistic regression is used to estimate
the impact of aspirations, educational expectations and
socio-economic status on future employment outcomes, particularly
regarding the likelihood of falling into 'NEET' (not in education,
employment or training) status.
Although the authors recognise the
impossibility of concluding that all possible other
influencing factors have been conditioned out, the results show
significant support for the view that the "increased
individualisation of the transition from school to work that
gathered pace in the 1980s has been
detrimental for those least well-equipped to negotiate the changes
in the youth labour market."
Drawing on research into the risk factors
influencing the likelihood of becoming 'NEET', they cite the
ability to navigate increasingly complex paths through education
and training as a vital factor in securing stable employment. This
transition is defined as 'fractured' when aspirations exceed
educational expectations, thus here referred to as being
'misaligned'. Asking respondents to state what type of career they
intend for themselves, the authors found that 39% of young men and
41% of young women aspired to careers requiring higher educational
qualifications than these young people were expected to achieve. 7%
of men and 6% of women said that they 'cannot decide' what career
they would like, and are referred to as having 'uncertain
aspirations'.
The key findings:
·
Compared to those with high and aligned ambitions and higher
educational expectations than their aspired career, young men with
mismatched aspirations and educational expectations were almost
twice as likely to become NEET. Young women with misaligned
ambitions were three times as likely to become NEET.
·
Young men and women with uncertain aspirations were roughly
three times more likely to become NEET.
·
The authors cite other recent research suggesting that
despite recent policy focus on improving career guidance, high
numbers of young people still aspire to careers unmatched to their
expected educational attainment.
·
The negative consequences of misaligned and uncertain
aspirations are greater for those from lower socio-economic status
(SES) backgrounds. Almost twice the proportion of people from lower
SES backgrounds had misaligned aspirations compared to their
high-SES counterparts (52% against
28%), and were proportionally more likely to
enter NEET status as a result.
·
This impact was not evident for young women, for whom early
pregnancy was shown to have a far greater impact on the likelihood
of becoming NEET (again, though, this is shown to be related to
SES).
To counter young peoples' alienation and
uncertainty by raising their aspirations would seem to be a
positive step, but where aspiration exceeds likely attainment, a
more complex challenge for social policy-making emerges, as simply
raising aspirations is not enough to guarantee adequate educational
success to meet those aspirations.
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Report