Skills Forecast: Trends and challenges to 2030

By Cedefop (published December 2018)

Skills Forecast: Trends and challenges to 2030

This new report from Cedefop provides information about the current state of Europe’s labour market and potential future trends. 2017 saw the fifth year of recovery in EU GDP growth, which is expected to continue in the near term averaging 1.8% until 2020 and slowing to 1.4% from 2021 onwards. The working age of the 28 EU European Union Member States plus three associate countries is expected to increase by 3.7% between 2016 and 2030 while the labour force will increase by 1%. Employment for high-skill occupations such as managers and professionals can be expected to grow, with some growth for less skilled jobs related to sales, security, cleaning, catering and caring occupations. The authors predict a more polarised labour market in the EU driven by the growth of jobs at the bottom of the wage distribution. Compared to previous periods, the UK along with France and Spain are predicted to each see increased employment in the bottom job-wage quintile by more than 500,000 jobs. The analysis also highlights a shift towards more autonomy, less routine and more computer technology, fewer physical tasks and more social and intellectual ones over the next eleven years. There will continue to be concern regarding imbalances and mismatches in skills demand. While the problem of over qualification for young graduates may be resolved in the long term, Europe is likely to experience over qualification for many people employed in both high and low-skills occupations.

Read the full report here.